Flood Outlook Statement
A Flood Outlook Statement is issued to raise awareness. Based on weather forecasts for heavy rain, snowmelt or high wind, a change in conditions on local waterways is possible.
Lower Trent Conservation advises municipalities and the public that a Flood Outlook Statement has been issued for the Lower Trent Watershed region (area stretching from Grafton to Quinte West and from Lake Ontario to Rice Lake and east to Centre Hastings). It is important to note that during this time high flows, unsafe banks or other factors could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Nuisance flooding for some may occur.
Stream flows and levels across the Lower Trent watershed region are average for this time of year after recently recovering from a snowmelt event on March 7, 2022. Beginning today, another melt event is expected with temperatures reaching the mid teens. Based on recent snow survey results, there is approximately 30 mm of water equivalent in the remaining snow pack in the Lower Trent watershed area. With these warmer temperatures, much of this snow is expected to melt and runoff as the ground conditions are still frozen and will not allow much of the melt water to infiltrate.
Rain is forecast to begin tomorrow with most of the rainfall occurring on Saturday. Precipitation totals in the 15 mm to 25 mm range are expected. With the frozen ground conditions and warmer temperatures, additional runoff from the snow and ice on the ground will contribute to the runoff and stream flows in our local creeks and streams. These higher flows on local streams may result in nuisance flooding in low-lying areas but widespread flooding is not anticipated.
While the potential dangers presented by rivers, small streams and open ditches never cease to exist, they are of particular concern at this time of the year. Water currents are strong and temperatures dangerously cold. Parents and caregivers are advised to keep children and pets away from all waterways. Areas around dams, culverts and bridges should be avoided at all times.
LTC staff will be monitoring the situation and update as necessary. Lower Trent Conservation monitors water levels and weather forecasts closely as part of its flood forecasting and warning program. Daily water level updates are available at www.LTC.on.ca. If you have concerns about water levels, please contact Lower Trent Conservation at (613) 394-4829 or the Flood Duty phone after business hours (613-848-4883).
This Flood Outlook Statement will be in effect until (or updated before) Monday March 21, 2022.