MESSAGE #: LTC – 25 – 13             Valid until Friday January 2, 2026 at 12:00 PM

Lower Trent Conservation advises municipalities and the public that a Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety has been issued for the local creeks and Lake Ontario within the Lower Trent Watershed region (area stretching for Grafton to Quinte West and from Lake Ontario to Rice Lake and east to Centre Hastings). It is important to note that during this time high water levels, unsafe banks and other factors could be dangerous for recreations users and waterfront landowners. Although flooding is not expected, localized inundation of low-lying and poorly drained areas may be possible.

A low-pressure system is expected to come through the southern region of the province over the course of today and continuing into tomorrow. This system is expected to bring moist weather patterns ranging from 25-45 mm of precipitation with potential for additional 10 mm in thunderstorms. The temperatures are expected to fluctuate over the course of the day and evening, resulting in periods of rain, freezing rain and could also include periods of snow. With the recent snow that was deposited earlier this past week, it is possible that the rain could cause icy conditions, increased flows and nuisance flooding in low-lying areas.

Water levels along our local creeks and streams are around the average for this time of year; however, increased water levels and stream flows are expected with the forecasted precipitation and increased runoff from any snowmelt.

Following the precipitation event on Monday morning, strong sustained southwest winds of 60-70 km/h, shifting to northwest by Monday evening, are expected along Lake Ontario. These strong winds are forecast to result in storm surge with waves exceeding 1.5 metres along the north shore of Lake Ontario beginning Monday afternoon and continuing intermittently until Wednesday evening. Surge related flooding and erosion damage from high waves is possible during these periods of strong onshore winds.

Residents should ensure personal property (boats, docks, etc.) along the shoreline is secured.

For further information on Lake Ontario water levels and forecasted water levels, please visit the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board website: https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/water-levels

While the potential dangers presented by lakes, rivers, small streams and open ditches never cease to exist, they are of particular concern during these conditions. Water currents could be strong and temperatures are cold. Additionally, river ice may start to break up and flow downstream. Minor ice jams are possible under these conditions; however, the volume of ice formed at this point in the season should not lead to significant ice jam concerns. Parents and caregivers are advised to keep children and pets away from all waterways. Areas around dams, culverts and bridges should be avoided at all times. Any remaining river and lake ice are not safe at this time.

Lower Trent Conservation monitors water levels and weather forecasts closely as part of its flood forecasting and warning program. Daily water level updates are available at www.LTC.on.ca. If you have concerns about water levels, please contact Lower Trent Conservation at (613)394-4829. Anyone having concerns about water levels on the Trent River can contact Parks Canada (705)750-4950 or [email protected].

This Water Safety Statement for the local creeks and Lake Ontario will be in effect until Friday, January 2, 2026 at 12:00PM.

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For more information contact:

Scott Robertson                                                                                         Corinne Ross

Development Officer                                                                               Communications Specialist            

[email protected][email protected]

Or Duty Officer phone (613) 848-4883