Lower Trent Conservation advises local municipalities and the public that a Shoreline Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook has been issued for Lake Ontario and Bay of Quinte shoreline from Grafton to Quinte West. Residents along the shoreline should be aware of the potential for erosion and minor flooding.

Due to the forecasted system coming through the area over the weekend, high winds and waves may cause water to overtop low lying Lake Ontario and Bay of Quinte shorelines. Furthermore, Lake Ontario and Bay of Quinte water levels continue their seasonal rise. Peak water levels are expected to increase above the high-water indicator of 75.3 metres IGLD1985 within the next month; however, water levels are forecast to be well below the observed flood levels of 2017 and 2019.

Surge related flooding and erosion damage from high waves is possible during these periods of strong onshore winds. Residents should pay close attention to weather forecasts for approaching storm systems with high southeast, south or southwest winds.

Water levels on the Great Lakes naturally vary, responding monthly, seasonally and annually to a variety of factors. Water levels are primarily influenced by natural factors, including precipitation, evaporation, winds, runoff from rivers or streams and inflow from upstream Great Lakes. Lake Ontario typically reaches its seasonal high-water level in May/June. Residents living along Lake Ontario and the Bay of Quinte should expect further increases in water levels for at least the next couple of months.

For further information on Lake Ontario water levels and forecasted water levels, please visit the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board website: https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/water-levels

Residents should ensure personal property (boats, docks, etc.) along the shoreline are secured.

Lower Trent Conservation monitors water levels and weather forecasts closely as part of its flood forecasting and warning program. Daily water level updates are available at www.LTC.on.ca. If you have concerns about water levels, please contact Lower Trent Conservation at (613) 394-4829.

 This Watershed Safety Statement will be in effect until (or updated before) Friday, May 26, 2023.